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    KeoghKeogh

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    Election predictions

    Post by KeoghKeogh on Thu 20 Apr 2017, 9:00 pm

    The expert wisdom is that the Conservatives will win by a landslide. However, given the election of Trump and the Brexit outcome, have the experts called this one correctly?

    Will Labour fall behind even further?

    Will another party take labour's votes?

    If so, which one?

    Will UKIP or the far right have an electoral impact?

    What impact will the Liberal Democrat's 'soft / no Brexit' stance have?

    What will Scotland decide given the impact of UK Brexit on the previous 'No - because to remain in the UK was to remain EU - voters'.
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    CornwallRam

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by CornwallRam on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 8:14 am

    The polls suggest a Conservative landslide. The polls have been wrong a lot recently, but only in one direction. The voting has turned out to be several percentage points further to the political right than the polls have suggested. This being the 'shy Tory' effect, where people quite like left/centre spending plans and want better schools, hospitals and social care but suddenly get worried that they will have to pay more tax and opt for the 'safe' low taxation message of the right when they get to the ballot box. I think this will continue and Labour will do worse than the polls suggest - it'll be a rout.

    Labour will lose it's last MP in Scotland, with the Tories gaining a couple from the SNP. Labour will keep it's seats in London and Birmingham and a few in the North and Wales, but will lose out everywhere else - Derby will go fully blue. The double whammy of the most inept city council and the disastrous Corbyn will see large Tory majorities in all local seats.

    The Lib-Dems will bounce back and may well end up with more MPs than Labour. Their strong pro-remain message will play well with lots of people and many will begin to forgive their actions in propping up the Cameron government.

    I reckon that the Greens will do well and get an extra MP. The UKIP vote will drop dramatically, with 99% of their former voters going Conservative.

    Conservative 388
    Lib Dems 93
    Labour 91
    SNP 54
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 5
    Plaid Cymru 4
    UUP 3
    SDLP 2
    Green 2

    126 Tory majority - although Sinn Fein don't usually take up their seats, so in effect it will be 136


    Last edited by CornwallRam on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 9:09 am; edited 1 time in total
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    MadAmster

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 8:36 am

    The SNP will, again, have almost a clean sweep of the Scottish seats.

    Labour will do worse than they did at the last election.

    The Lib Dems will become the 2nd party.

    UKIP will disappear. Their "one seat" will go Tory.

    Following the election, TM will introduce the proposed boundary changes which will lead to them doing even better in the 2022 election, making the country a virtual 1 party state for ever and a day. One step closer to the NWO.

    The country of my birth is no more and will probably never return.

    What Labour and the Lib Dems should do is to look at all of the Tory marginals. Whichever of them did the worst in that constituency in the previous election should decline to put up a candidate and ask their supporters to vote for the other party. Anything to screw Tory plans.

    All over the world, it is time to reclaim our countries from the "1%". Globalisation has gone too far. Everything is about squeezing ever more profit to the benefit of less and less people. Every merger means more people out of work. Time to turn back the clock.

    Banks. Force them to split their personal and commercial arms. That way your savings would be safe from being decimated by gambles the commercial arm makes going wrong and effectively breaking the bank. Bankers who are responsible for things like the Libor should be charged, tried and, if found guilty of an offence, go to jail.

    Insurance. Mis-selling of policies is also fraud. Those responsible should be charged, tried and, if found guilty of an offence, go to jail.

    The "markets". A lot of what goes on at the Stock Exchange is NOT investment. It is gambling. Put, call and short options are pure gambling. It should be stopped.

    The buying and selling of currency for the purpose of screwing a nation's economy as Soros did with Portugal and Indonesia should NOT be allowed.

    My biggest fear is that those in power (and that is NOT May, Trump etc) will not allow the necessary changes to be allowed.



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    SawleyRam

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by SawleyRam on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 10:09 am

    What does concern me is that a decent percentage of voters will see this election as a straight yes/no vote affecting Brexit so whatever choice the British public make in who governs this country it will be for the wrong reason.
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    MadAmster

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 12:59 pm

    It appears I have upset somebody with my thoughts. LOL roll It matters not as I don't give a fishcake about anonymous reaction. Especially when I was correct in everything I wrote.

    I mean, TM has said the MPs suspected of Law breaking in the last election are allowed to stand again. Fair enough, innocent until proven government but shouldn't MPs be held to a higher moral standard?

    Basically the nation is being asked to decide who is going to screw them over for the next 5 years.............



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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by RRC on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 1:52 pm

    MA, I understand that you want to take part in the discussion but perhaps overseas members
    need to be aware that they may not be up to date or have detailed knowledge of the UK now.

    Here's just one example -- you suggested separating the different sides of banks as a good
    idea, which it is in some ways. But, if you lived here, you'd know the idea has a real down side.

    The government forced banks to split their investment and personal banking arms a while
    ago. The net result has been that the investment side no longer subsidizes the less profitable
    local branches, which are being closed in large numbers with heavy job losses and much
    reduced local access. That's fine for those with internet access and decent security on
    their home computers. It's more risky for those who rely on pubic internet access and very
    inconvenient for those who can't, or don't wish to, use internet banking or travel to cities
    for banking services.

    Did you miss Mr Corbyn saying that Labour would not be working with other parties in the
    election? So there won't be any cross-party alliances involving Labour.



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    KeoghKeogh

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by KeoghKeogh on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 6:24 pm

    SawleyRam wrote:What does concern me is that a decent percentage of voters will see this election as a straight yes/no vote affecting Brexit so whatever choice the British public make in who governs this country it will be for the wrong reason.

    Brexit looks likely to be a factor in a SDP increase in Scotland.

    There will be bigger fish to fry in NI.

    It will be interesting to see whether enough of the remaining electorate (ie England and Wales) who voted for Brexit or didnt vote are looking for a Remain protest vote... and whether the Liberals set themselves as a Remain party... like an 'anti-UKIP'.

    My complete guess is that the Liberals will campaign as a soft Brexit rather than Remain party.

    My guess is also that most of the mainstream media will have no interest in showing the negative impact of Brexit during the election period (arguably the price rises due to the weaker pound post-Brexit vote). So the Liberals will get very little media support whatever their Brexit stance may be.

    From what has been said on here so far, the common thread seems to be the reduction in the Labour vote.

    It does make me wonder what impact a new centre-left party led by an intelligent, media-friendly, mature and respected celebrity might have had on the election.
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    Loughborough Ram

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by Loughborough Ram on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 7:31 pm

    Am I the only one who is fed up to the back teeth with any talk of Brexit?

    If any of the opposition parties try to turn this into the main reason for voting they will be handing a massive victory to the tories. If I was in charge of any of the opposition campaigns I would be focussing on anything but Brexit, they have to force it into the background and bring uk issues to the fore, Brexit is going to happen so just get on with it.
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by Stockport Ram on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 7:48 pm

    RRC wrote:MA, I understand that you want to take part in the discussion but perhaps overseas members
    need to be aware that they may not be up to date or have detailed knowledge of the UK now.

    Here's just one example -- you suggested separating the different sides of banks as a good
    idea, which it is in some ways. But, if you lived here, you'd know the idea has a real down side.

    The government forced banks to split their investment and personal banking arms a while
    ago. The net result has been that the investment side no longer subsidizes the less profitable
    local branches, which are being closed in large numbers with heavy job losses and much
    reduced local access. That's fine for those with internet access and decent security on
    their home computers. It's more risky for those who rely on pubic internet access and very
    inconvenient for those who can't, or don't wish to, use internet banking or travel to cities
    for banking services.


    Did you miss Mr Corbyn saying that Labour would not be working with other parties in the
    election? So there won't be any cross-party alliances involving Labour.

    I have worked in retail banking for almost 30 years but whilst I abhore the social impact of branch closures like any true socialist, I think that shareholders' interests would have caused current levels of branch decimation regardless of the retail/wholesale split.

    I can understand the logic behind the cause and effect theory but my opinion (and it is no more than that) is that a combination of PPI hammering profits and 70% footfall reduction in branches would have caused this, and at this pace, regardless.
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    rjrules71

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by rjrules71 on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 8:08 pm

    I believe it is far too early to tell who will emerge as a credible opposition as yet.

    This could be a Tory masterstroke or a complete disaster.

    The left are in disarray under Corbyn and any party as has been suggested could become the darlings.

    Like him or not Clegg was very good at the TV debates etc and a similar man may emerge with the press behind him, though I seriously doubt if young Tim has the wherewithal to carry it off.

    With article 50 triggered the only issue with Brexit is how we leave, soft or hard.
    So that should not in my opinion be the battleground, rather someone with a bit of vision for a UK future, including Scotland (God how hate that self serving madam Sturgeon), to take the reins as we ride off from Europe.
    The Tories have pitched themselves as the ones to lead us to the promised land, but without credible opposition they will have free rein to pass laws that will only serve their paymasters.
    Surely someone amongst the hopefuls will see this and provide a different vision of a future with prosperity for all, whilst caring too for those who are struggling with life.

    Utopia I hear! Brave New World say I!



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    New England Ram
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by New England Ram on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 9:00 pm

    Loughborough Ram wrote:Am I the only one who is fed up to the back teeth with any talk of Brexit?

    If any of the opposition parties try to turn this into the main reason for voting they will be handing a massive victory to the tories. If I was in charge of any of the opposition campaigns I would be focussing on anything but Brexit, they have to force it into the background and bring uk issues to the fore, Brexit is going to happen so just get on with it.

    Am I the only one fed up with politics and politicians ?
    In my lifetime I have never known there be so much divisiveness much of it due to a world full of keyboard warriors who all have a platform to spout what ever bullshi* that comes to mind if it does not agree with their opinion or beliefs.

    And for the most part today's leaders and politicians have not come to grips with what that kind of propaganda is doing to our society and many of them feed it and feed off it doing a lot of unreapairable damage in the meantime.

    Fu**ing internet and media is killing us and I don't trust those in charge to navigate us through all this bullshit and animosity.

    Off topic slightly...rant over



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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Fri 21 Apr 2017, 9:09 pm

    Stockport Ram wrote:
    RRC wrote:MA, I understand that you want to take part in the discussion but perhaps overseas members
    need to be aware that they may not be up to date or have detailed knowledge of the UK now.

    Here's just one example -- you suggested separating the different sides of banks as a good
    idea, which it is in some ways. But, if you lived here, you'd know the idea has a real down side.

    The government forced banks to split their investment and personal banking arms a while
    ago. The net result has been that the investment side no longer subsidizes the less profitable
    local branches, which are being closed in large numbers with heavy job losses and much
    reduced local access. That's fine for those with internet access and decent security on
    their home computers. It's more risky for those who rely on pubic internet access and very
    inconvenient for those who can't, or don't wish to, use internet banking or travel to cities
    for banking services.


    Did you miss Mr Corbyn saying that Labour would not be working with other parties in the
    election? So there won't be any cross-party alliances involving Labour.

    I have worked in retail banking for almost 30 years but whilst I abhore the social impact of branch closures like any true socialist, I think that shareholders' interests would have caused current levels of branch decimation regardless of the retail/wholesale split.

    I can understand the logic behind the cause and effect theory but my opinion (and it is no more than that) is that a combination of PPI hammering profits and 70% footfall reduction in branches would have caused this, and at this pace, regardless.

    I was unaware of the banks being split already but, surely, if I think something is a good idea I should be able to say so?

    As for Corbyn ruling out inter-party cooperation, that doesn't make my suggestion any less accurate in stopping a Tory landslide.

    As for the other bits like stopping Soros et al in their currency gambling speculation and banning call, put and short options, they are, IMO, immoral and have no place in a sensible financial market.



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    CornwallRam

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by CornwallRam on Sat 22 Apr 2017, 10:10 am

    Loughborough Ram wrote:Am I the only one who is fed up to the back teeth with any talk of Brexit?

    If any of the opposition parties try to turn this into the main reason for voting they will be handing a massive victory to the tories. If I was in charge of any of the opposition campaigns I would be focussing on anything but Brexit, they have to force it into the background and bring uk issues to the fore, Brexit is going to happen so just get on with it.

    The Tories will gain a massive victory anyway. The battle is for who gets to lead the official opposition. 52% did vote for Brexit, but 48% didn't. The Tories pretty much own those 52% of votes, so there's little point in any other party competing there. The Lib Dem, Green and SNP strategies are to oppose Brexit and it will play well with a good proportion of the 48%.

    It is also likely that opposition politicians are positioning themselves with the future in mind. Whilst I freely acknowledge that I could be wrong, it is my opinion that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster which will end the careers of all the politicians seen to be currently enthusiastic for it. Those who oppose it now may well look very wise in five year's time. This election's unwinnable for anyone not called Theresa May, but the next one won't be.
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Sat 22 Apr 2017, 12:50 pm

    Not sure you are right on that one Corners. With the planned boundary changes, the Tories will have a lap or two start on the rest.

    Personally, I would like to see some form of PR to prevent landslide victories, be they left or right. The constant lurching from one extreme to the other is not good for the country as a whole.

    A system whereby seats were distributed proportionally with, for instance, a requirement to have a minimum of 10% of the votes cast before qualifying for seats will ensure we don't get too many parties involved.



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    CornwallRam

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by CornwallRam on Sat 22 Apr 2017, 1:27 pm

    MadAmster wrote:Not sure you are right on that one Corners. With the planned boundary changes, the Tories will have a lap or two start on the rest.

    Personally, I would like to see some form of PR to prevent landslide victories, be they left or right. The constant lurching from one extreme to the other is not good for the country as a whole.

    A system whereby seats were distributed proportionally with, for instance, a requirement to have a minimum of 10% of the votes cast before qualifying for seats will ensure we don't get too many parties involved.

    I have my doubts as to whether those boundary changes will ever happen. Certainly they were designed to gerrymander future elections but I reckon the Indy Ref II will sweep the proposals away. I believe that the current plan is to reduce the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs.

    Scotland will leave the UK, which'll seriously lessen the chances of any future Labour government. There'll be a new set of electoral boundaries for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. With 59 Scottish seats disappearing, I can see them going for 500 seats. I actually think that that one could backfire on the Tories as to maintain roughly equal population sized constituencies, almost every seat will have a considerable urban area, with the conurbations holding the balance of power. This is territory where the left and centre parties could compete - especially if the Tories are destroyed by a disastrous Brexit.

    The best thing about this election is that it hastens the departure of Corbyn. At least Labour might be able to rebuild if it can free itself of the malign influence of Momentum.


    Last edited by CornwallRam on Sat 22 Apr 2017, 3:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Sat 22 Apr 2017, 2:57 pm

    I read that the impending GE had scuppered the boundary changes for now but that the Tories want to bring them in before the 2022 election.............



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    KeoghKeogh

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by KeoghKeogh on Fri 09 Jun 2017, 9:55 pm

    So now a handful of NI Unionists dictate the government's decisions over Brexit, the economy, defense, farming subsidies, border controls etc.

    Now not May (or who ever) can really convince the EU that they need us more than we need them!

    This Brexit thing seems to be working out a real treat!



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    Loughborough Ram

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by Loughborough Ram on Fri 09 Jun 2017, 11:25 pm

    F*ck me, you still whinging on about that?
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 9:31 am

    Well, the predictions were made in the wake of the election being called/ Now, almost 2 months later, we know the result.

    May was, IMO, lucky to hold on, despite her still being the largest party. Did she really want to win? many have their doubts. The U turns. The so-called dementia tax, removal of the triple lock on pensions and more. All policies detrimental to her core vote. Her decision to only attend meetings with party faithful and only have pre-arranged questions asked and therefore avoid crowds, opposition and difficult questions. The fixed photo shoots, apparently showing a crowd but then, up ops a photo from a different angle and they are in a field somewhere, away from prying eyes with a mere 40 or so party faithfuls being the "crowd". her refusal to take part in the TV debate. She avoided anything and everything that might have been potentially embarrassing. She got it wrong.......... but still ended up with the largest share of the vote and the most seats but she doesn't have an overall majority. She solves that problem by climbing into bed with the political wing of the UDA paramilitary group.

    May now has, along with the DUP, 328 seats to 322 for the rest. A majority of 6 which becomes 7 when you take the Speaker out of the equation. In reality that is a majority of 14 because the political wing of the IRA, Sinn Fein, has 7 seats which they will not take up. That should prove to be a workable majority. At what price though?

    This result severely damages May's credibility, in the eyes of the EU overlords. They must be rubbing their hands with glee. A hard Brexit seems to me to be out of the window as the price of DUP support will almost certainly include a very soft Ireland/NI border solution with no major border controls or maybe even no import duties between the 2 countries. A lack of a hard Brexit will be another May U turn if/when it happens.

    This begs the question "will it be a hard Brexit or will it be on with no deal in place"? There is the third, soft, option of staying in the single market and customs area but that would involve accepting freedom of movement. That would seem to scupper option 3.

    No deal in place would save the one off divorce payment but we would have no trade deals in place and, IMO, the EU would not be helpful in securing trade deals quickly as a lack of a divorce settlement would blow a great hole in EU finances. That leaves a hard Brexit as the other option which would involve a divorce settlement which would save the EU from a financial earthquake and also have some sort of trade deal. The details of the trade deal may not have been sorted by the end of March 2019 but it wouldn't be impossible to keep the current EU deals active until the new deals have been thrashed out.

    Congratulations to the Tories on remaining the largest party. Similar to Labour for their gains.

    The result has not helped the UK.



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    thatguyfromderby

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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by thatguyfromderby on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 12:04 pm

    The death knell is tolling.
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by SawleyRam on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 12:56 pm

    thatguyfromderby wrote:The death knell is tolling.

    The f*knell is is more apt.
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 2:14 pm

    On a lighter note...... for some reason I can't look at Theresa May without having Cruella Deville flash through my brain.



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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by old ewe on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 3:29 pm

    10 pm on Thursday night was a wondrous moment................ all those pundits and commentators aghast  as they realised they had prepared for a completely different programme to the one they were about to present....
    Ian Dale had mega egg on face since he discounted the Exit poll as rubbish and predicted a 100 seat majority.... at worst 35
    And she got exactly what she deserved.  Wonder who reminded her that she needed to make a public apology.Now she is between a rock and a hard place...................but it ain't over yet folks !!
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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by MadAmster on Sat 10 Jun 2017, 3:55 pm

    old ewe wrote:10 pm on Thursday night was a wondrous moment................ all those pundits and commentators aghast  as they realised they had prepared for a completely different programme to the one they were about to present....
    Ian Dale had mega egg on face since he discounted the Exit poll as rubbish and predicted a 100 seat majority.... at worst 35
    And she got exactly what she deserved.  Wonder who reminded her that she needed to make a public apology.Now she is between a rock and a hard place...................but it ain't over yet folks !!

    The IRA Sinn Fein are rather unhappy at the UDA DUP being in cahoots with the Tories. The power sharing has broken down and NI is being run from Westminster at the moment. DUP in a sort of Coalition with TM might be seen as being biased to DUP wishes and against SF wishes. DUP want a hard Brexit but all the border counties are SF. More trouble in store there.

    Will SF finally take their seats at Westminster, if only to cancel out any influence the DUP may wish to wield?

    This aint over. Not by a long shot.

    Definitely a Forrest Gump moment in UK Politics..........



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    Re: Election predictions

    Post by Stockport Ram on Mon 12 Jun 2017, 1:56 pm

    MadAmster wrote:
    old ewe wrote:10 pm on Thursday night was a wondrous moment................ all those pundits and commentators aghast  as they realised they had prepared for a completely different programme to the one they were about to present....
    Ian Dale had mega egg on face since he discounted the Exit poll as rubbish and predicted a 100 seat majority.... at worst 35
    And she got exactly what she deserved.  Wonder who reminded her that she needed to make a public apology.Now she is between a rock and a hard place...................but it ain't over yet folks !!

    The IRA Sinn Fein are rather unhappy at the UDA DUP being in cahoots with the Tories. The power sharing has broken down and NI is being run from Westminster at the moment. DUP in a sort of Coalition with TM might be seen as being biased to DUP wishes and against SF wishes. DUP want a hard Brexit but all the border counties are SF. More trouble in store there.

    Will SF finally take their seats at Westminster, if only to cancel out any influence the DUP may wish to wield?

    This aint over. Not by a long shot.

    Definitely a Forrest Gump moment in UK Politics..........

    That thought had crossed my mind in the early hours of the morning in Mexico too, MA.

    That really would put the cat amongst the pigeons (or the armalite amongst the ballot box, if you prefer).


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    Re: Election predictions

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      Current date/time is Tue 27 Jun 2017, 7:49 am